Weekly Economic Focus: Strong US dollar drives equity markets lower 

By Alexander Forbes Investments on Nov 13, 2018 in Economic Insights

Last Tuesday’s US midterm Congressional elections produced a split, with Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years, and the Republicans increasing control of the Senate.

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Weekly Economic Update: Red October as Global Assets Show Negative Returns

By Alexander Forbes Investments on Nov 08, 2018 in Economic Insights

  Global wrap – Red October across all major asset classes A cocktail of bad data, downwardly revised global expectations, and continued capital flight from emerging markets, culminated in increased volatility and negative performance returns in all major asset classes. The International Monetary Fund’s downward revision of global growth, to 3.7% from 3.9%, for both 2018 and 2019, reignited concerns about the potential for a market correction or a bear market. Oil prices initially increased above US$80/bbl, before declining by 14.2%, to US$73/bbl. However, year-to-date (YTD) prices remain 8.7% higher. The MSCI World and the MSCI ACWI indices returned -7.3% and -7.5% in October, and -1.9% and -3.5% YTD, in US dollar terms. The MSCI Emerging Market Index returned -8.7% in October, and -15.5% YTD. Bond markets also saw negative performance returns, with the Citi World Government Bond Index returning -1.1% in October, and -3.6% YTD. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index returned -1.2% in October, and -10.4% YTD.   October’s market performance highlights a slightly worse outlook than what we have been emphasising over the past couple of months – we are in a low-return environment. The likelihood of negative performance returns for 2018, if we do not […]

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Weekly Economic Focus: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Disappoints.

By Alexander Forbes Investments on Oct 31, 2018 in Economic Insights

Although the MTBPS was disappointing, it was realistic and showed government’s commitment to stay on course for fiscal prudence to ensure fiscal sustainability.

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Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement: Fiscal Slippage For Three Consecutive Years.

By Alexander Forbes Investments on Oct 25, 2018 in Economic Insights General

Compared to the 2018 Budget, the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) shows lower economic growth for FY2018/2019, while keeping the growth forecast for FY2019/2020-FY2022 largely unchanged.

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